International

Ukraine 2023: Counteroffensive stalls, dependence grows

2023 proved a challenging year for Ukraine. While the ambitious summer counteroffensive fell short of reclaiming all occupied territories, the country achieved strategic successes and navigated an increasingly reliant relationship with the West, following a debate organised by IPN News Agency.

Economic hardship mounted as Ukraine remained heavily dependent on Western military and financial support. "Ukraine has been entirely dependent on Western ammunition and weaponry since May 2022," explained Marin Gherman, director of the Institute for Political Studies and Social Capital in Chernivtsi. "This dependence fuels concerns in Kyiv about their ability to defend themselves alone if abandoned by the West."

Military experts painted a nuanced picture of Ukrainian achievements. While acknowledging the counteroffensive's limitations, Constantin Dicusar, a journalist from Podul.ro, emphasised the shift to a war of attrition similar to World War I's final stages. "Ukraine's key achievement lies in destroying a part of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and partially unlocking grain export routes," added Igor Boțan.

Despite setbacks, some experts saw signs of Ukrainian resilience. Boțan cited successful attacks on Russian aircraft and warships, suggesting "2023 wasn't entirely unsuccessful for Ukraine."

However, concerns persist about escalating Russian attacks in 2024. Ukrainian generals warn of urgent needs for Western missile resupply. The war's trajectory remains uncertain, leaving questions about long-term sustainability and potential diplomatic solutions hovering in the air.

Translation by Iurie Tataru

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