Amid dual wars, Europe's political chess game unfolds
In the backdrop of two wars unfolding on the world’s map, the one in Gaza has quickly faded in both public opinion and the media, even faster than the conflict in Ukraine, says Dan Alexe, in his commentary on the two major conflicts and the ways they can influence the geopolitical landscape.
Losses in Ukraine, however, remain predominantly military, while Gaza is on the brink of surpassing a 1% casualty rate of its population.
European politicians struggle to foresee the end of these two tragedies. On the periphery of Europe, Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin have a vested interest in prolonging the conflicts, anticipating a possible re-election of Donald Trump.
Netanyahu, leading a country at war, currently enjoys immunity as the head of the government. Despite facing a triple indictment in 2019 for corruption, fraud, and abuse of power, he hopes to eradicate Hamas, an objective with slim chances, even at the cost of systematic destruction in Gaza.
A Dual Bet on Trump
Netanyahu disregards the potential impact on Biden, as the Democratic Party faces unprecedented divisions. The Israeli Prime Minister hopes for Donald Trump's return to the White House, where he received unwavering support from 2017 to 2020.
Vladimir Putin, sharing more affinities with Netanyahu than with Joe Biden, believes Trump's re-election could secure victory against Ukraine. The Russian President aims to gain through the Gaza war, exploiting the West's inability to defend universal principles in the Middle East, principles they pledged to support in favour of Ukraine.
The Kremlin sees the Gaza conflict as invaluable, integrating the European front with the Middle East in the same hegemonic ambition, while Western inconsistency on these two fronts reveals a lack of a global strategy, especially as the European elections in June 2024 approach.
Putin knows he can rely on Netanyahu, who has not supplied any ammunition to Ukraine and has a strained relationship with Volodymyr Zelensky.
The probability of Russian success in Ukraine increases with each day the Gaza conflict prolongs, creating a gap between Western democracies and the "Global South," extending far beyond the Arab and Muslim world. These strategic insights should compel European leaders to mobilise for a long-term resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, matching the energy they invested in supporting Ukraine in 2022.
Moreover, the Syrian tragedy serves as a reminder that Europe's collective passivity did not spare it from the 2015 refugee crisis or subsequent jihadist attacks.
The cost of Europe's self-marginalisation in the ongoing Middle East crisis could be enormous. Experts warn that funding generously provided to the Palestinian Authority should be conditioned on an uncompromising democratisation of the inefficient and corrupt Palestinian institutions. The EU cannot settle for the role of financing Gaza's reconstruction, a role the US and Israel can promptly pass on to Europe, absolving themselves of responsibility in such a catastrophic situation.
Amidst these threats, Italy's Foreign Minister, Antonio Tajani, has emphatically called for the EU to equip itself with a genuine European army: "If we want to be guarantors of world peace, we need a European army."
However, until then, in 2024, Europe's destiny will be shaped by events in Gaza and Ukraine.
Translation by Iurie Tataru
