Experts: Belarus is not ready to get involved in war, and the Russian military presence on its territory is not a consolidated one
The formation of regional groups from Russian troops that continue to arrive on the territory of the Republic of Belarus is not part of a plausible scenario that Russia could attack Ukraine from the territory of Belarus. Rather, this would be a coercion of Belarus on the part of Moscow, which for now does not imply Minsk's open involvement in the war, experts from Chisinau believe.
According to them, Belarus is not ready to get involved in war, and the Russian military presence on its territory is not consolidated. Troops from Russia continue to arrive in the Republic of Belarus, the Ministry of Defense in Minsk announced on Thursday, stating that in this way the military security of the Russia-Belarus State Union is ensured.
This action is a coercion of Minsk by Moscow, which involves equipping, providing military infrastructure, and training. But it is not in Alexander Lukashenko's interest to get involved directly, with the military, in the war started by the Russian Federation in Ukraine - Marin Butuc, the director of the Doctoral School "Military and Security Sciences" at the "Alexandru cel Bun" Military Academy of the Armed Forces told Radio Moldova.
"*Initiating a counteroffensive from the territory of Belarus, from Belarus to Ukraine, is less plausible and less credible. Any offensive from a strictly military perspective, there is a need for logistic insurance that we don't see, there is a need for equipment insurance, which we don't see. We cannot have certain signs of concern", said Marin Butuc.
Sending Russian troops to Belarus is a tactical element of the Russian Federation, and Alexandr Lukashenko would do his best not to involve Belarus in the war - noted expert Ion Tăbârță.
According to him, if Belarus joins the war, then the front line will get even closer to the border of the Republic of Moldova.
Rather, at the given moment, it is a tactical element and would keep the Ukrainian army under pressure, but if it comes to the involvement of Belarus in the war in Ukraine, it cannot but affect the Republic of Moldova. The Republic of Moldova is directly affected by the war there, economically, energetically", declared Ion Tăbârță.
Radio Moldova recalls that the Republic of Belarus offered its territory at the beginning of the invasion as a launching pad for the Russian Federation's attacks on Ukraine, which gave the Russians a strategic advantage. In May, the association of former security officers "ByPol" published an investigation according to which, in the first three months of the war, 633 missiles were launched from the territory of the Republic of Belarus over Ukraine, according to DW.
In early October, the president of Belarus threatened to join the war in Ukraine by creating a joint military group and allowing up to 9,000 Russian troops to be stationed on the border with Ukraine. He then noted that Belarus is participating in the so-called special military operation in Ukraine, but not killing anyone Ukraine has repeatedly warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin may try to use the territory of Belarus to launch a new land invasion of Ukraine from the north, a step that would open a new major front in the war, Reuters reports.
