Attacks in Kursk did not affect gas supplies in the Republic of Moldova, but there are risks, experts warn
The flow of natural gas through the Sudja compressor station, located on the border with Ukraine, remains stable, ensuring the continuity of supplies to the Transnistrian region, said the State Secretary of the Ministry of Energy, Constantin Borosan. He also confirmed that, currently, natural gas deliveries to the Republic of Moldova via Ukraine are not affected.
"At the moment, the physical flow of natural gas at PI Sudja is at the same level as at the beginning of this year, 40-45 million m3/day. At PI Grebenyky, through which the largest part of the volume of natural gas is transported to the Transnistrian region, the physical flow is within the limits of the reserved capacity based on the transit contract concluded in 2019 and valid until the end of the current year 2024", announced Constantin Borosan on August 9, after the authorities declared a state of early alert on the gas market a day ago, in the context of intensification of military actions in the area where the Sudja station is located.
The risks and impact of a possible stoppage of gas transit
Energy expert Ion Preașcă warns that a possible suspension of natural gas supplies to the Transnistrian region could have serious consequences for the production of electricity in the region and, implicitly, for the energy security of the right bank of the Nistru. The Cuciurgan power plant, which operates exclusively on Russian gas, provides approximately 90% of the right bank's energy needs. If gas transit through Ukraine is stopped, the Republic of Moldova could face a significant electricity deficit.
The expert Sergiu Tofilat stated on Moldova 1 TV that, in the event of a suspension of the transit through Ukraine, Gazprom would have the obligation to bring the gas to the border of the Republic of Moldova and assume the costs. However, it remains to be seen whether there is sufficient capacity in the already maxed-out pipeline for deliveries to Hungary.
On the other hand, Ion Preașcă notes the lack of an official reaction from Tiraspol, considering that the authorities in the Transnistrian region could avoid causing panic.
"In fact, they always know that somehow the Republic of Moldova will do everything possible to secure the gas region as well. It may also be a matter of practice not to cause panic, etc. We don't know, but in principle I don't think that they are not worried and they are not taking into account certain measures", said Preașcă in the show "Zi de Zi" from Radio Moldova.
The Sudja cross-border interconnection point is, from May 11, 2022, until now, the only infrastructure through which Russian natural gas takes place through Ukraine to the countries of the European Union and to the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova.
What is happening in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation
Russian forces have been facing a major incursion by Ukrainian troops in the Kursk border region for several days. The Ukrainian presidency believes that this "surprise offensive", launched on Tuesday, is the consequence of the Russian "aggression" in Ukraine for almost two and a half years, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths and massive destruction.
The Institute for the Study of War estimated that Ukrainian forces had captured at least 11 Russian settlements by Thursday, while the Financial Times estimated the area covered by Kiev's troops at 350 square kilometers. While Russian military leaders assured that the situation was under control, locals fleeing their homes pointed out that they were lying - and Moscow implicitly confirmed the gravity of the situation by declaring a federal state of emergency in the region on Friday.
"The position of the Ukrainians is unclear. It seems they want to establish some positions in this region that will resist a Russian attack. It doesn't seem like a simple diversion, a raid: you attacked, you made some videos, like a PR action. No, this operation is thought of differently. They manage to coordinate very well and strike extremely effectively. And we are talking about a small number of soldiers who managed to occupy a very large territory. The Russians, with far more troops, have occupied less during the assaults of the past five months. It's clear that it's a problem at the command level with regard to the Russian army," Romanian historian and political analyst Armand Goșu told Radio Moldova.
On August 8, the Embassy of the Republic of Moldova in the Russian Federation advised Moldovan citizens to refrain from traveling to this region of the Russian Federation, due to security risks. Also, the Embassy recommended to the approximately 2000 citizens of the Republic of Moldova, who are in this region, to leave it. The spokespperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs from Chisinau, Liliana Barbăroșie, told Teleradio-Moldova that so far, no citizen of our country has requested help or assistance.
