How Trump's rhetoric amplifies the Great Replacement theory
On Tuesday, August 13, the official “Trump War Room” campaign account on the social platform “X” (formerly Twitter) posted a photograph of a tranquil residential neighbourhood with the caption: “Your neighbourhood under Trump.”
The idyllic image was juxtaposed with a chaotic scene of black and Hispanic migrants who arrived in New York last summer, captioned: “Your neighbourhood under Kamala.” The post declared, “Import the third world. Become the third world.”
This racially charged post aligns with the tone the Trump campaign has adopted in recent weeks—an even more offensive tone than in previous months and years—as the former president seeks to gain ground against Kamala Harris.
Similar to Trump himself, the War Room account has a singular obsession: it regularly highlights stories about migrant crime, posting images of black or Hispanic men who emigrated to the United States and were subsequently arrested. This ideological stance is rooted in the “Great Replacement” theory, which was imported from Europe.
Much of Donald Trump’s recent rhetoric, including his lengthy, disjointed “interview” with Elon Musk, relies on unsubstantiated claims of an exponential increase in crime in the U.S. due to migrants. This rhetoric echoes an older conspiracy theory, now increasingly disseminated through Western white supremacist media: the “Great Replacement” theory.
It is important to note that there is no evidence supporting an increase in migrant-driven crime or higher crime rates in cities with large migrant populations. Research suggests that immigrants are less likely to be arrested compared to their native counterparts. Trump’s fixation on crimes committed by migrants—and the relative silence on other threats facing Americans, such as mass shootings—speaks volumes.
“Kamala Harris IMPORTS rape and robbery into our communities,” declared another post from the Trump War Room yesterday. “President Trump will end this carnage and DEPORT these illegal foreigners back to where they came from.”
None of this is new for Trump, who has a well-documented history of racist remarks and whose campaigns have been crafted to stoke fears of migrants. As a candidate in 2015, Trump called for a “total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States.” The theory originated in France: “Le Grand Remplacement,” or the Great Replacement, is a concept invented by French far-right theorist Renaud Camus, referring to a fictional “total cultural and racial replacement” of whites and Europeans by other races. Marine Le Pen has also incorporated this concept into her speeches.
Another proponent of this theory in France is far-right journalist and politician Eric Zemmour. The concept also references “Le Camp des Saints” (1973), a novel by the late Jean Raspail depicting France being overrun by millions of immigrants. In the imagination of supporters of the “Great Replacement” theory, this scenario will occur either through invasion or simply through “fertility rates.”
A similar theme is found in Michel Houellebecq's novel “Soumission” / Submission, accidentally released on the day of the Islamist massacre at Charlie Hebdo, January 7, 2015.
The white supremacist killer in New Zealand, responsible for the Christchurch mosque massacre in 2019, explicitly cited the “Great Replacement” theory as his inspiration.
Trump is not new to attempting to forge a transatlantic ideological alliance with European far-right groups. Even as president, he sent his close ally Steve Bannon on a failed European tour, struggling to align with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Viktor Orban.
The “Great Replacement” conspiracy theory is no longer marginal but has become mainstream.
The foundations of the “Great Replacement” conspiracy theory, which has been repeated over time to attract a broader audience, have penetrated a more dominant part of American society. A recent survey by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that one in three American adults now believes in a version of this theory.
The rapid spread of this false narrative in American discourse, since the term was first coined by a French ethno-nationalist decades ago, has astonished even experts in extremism who have tracked the spread of hate ideologies. They point to the failure of major social media platforms to effectively moderate such content, the role of Fox News hosts in amplifying these ideas, and the adoption of conspiracy language by some elected Republican officials.
Demographic Change
Between 2010 and 2020, the percentage of Americans identifying as “only white” decreased by over 10 percent, from 72 to 62 percent. In the same decade, several Western European countries experienced record influxes of migrants from Muslim nations. Against this backdrop of demographic change, replacement rhetoric has accelerated in recent years.
“In the USA, it is often termed ‘white genocide.’ In Europe, it is referred to as ‘Eurabia.’ Baseless theories claim that these demographic changes are orchestrated by elite power holders. In Europe, the false narrative blames elite politicians for the growing Muslim population.”
AUTHOR: Dan Alexe
Translation by Iurie Tataru
