Moldova stabilizes macro-financial outlook as IMF projects investment-led growth through 2026
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board has concluded its Article IV consultations with Moldova, signaling a steady yet cautious recovery. While the economy is rebounding from recent systemic shocks, experts warn that the path to long-term stability remains exposed to significant external risks.
The IMF projects real GDP growth of 2.7% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026. This expansion is supported by robust agricultural yields, strong domestic demand, and substantial financial backing from the European Union.
Rising wages and increased credit availability have boosted both private consumption and industrial output. However, sluggish export performance continues to weigh on the growth rate and widens the current account deficit.
Inflation stabilizes within target range
After years of volatile price surges, inflation is expected to remain within the National Bank of Moldova’s (NBM) target corridor of 5% ± 1.5% by 2026.
The IMF commended the NBM’s prompt response to energy sector shocks. Directors emphasized that monetary policy must remain vigilant, with future rate adjustments strictly data-dependent to ensure long-term price stability.
Fiscal expansion to support modernization
The budget deficit is forecast to reach 4.8% of GDP by 2026, driven by a strategic increase in capital expenditure. Public debt is also expected to climb toward 40% of GDP during this period.
The IMF views this temporary deficit as a justified trade-off for transitioning to an investment-based economy. To maintain fiscal health, the Board recommends rationalizing tax expenditures and streamlining VAT exemptions to mobilize internal revenue.
Banking resilience and structural reforms
Moldova’s banking sector remains robust, though the IMF cautioned against rapid credit growth and rising residential property prices. Strengthening macroprudential oversight is deemed essential to mitigate potential systemic risks.
The central message remains clear: Moldova's future prosperity hinges on ambitious structural reforms. Accelerating the EU accession process and implementing the EU Growth Plan are identified as the primary catalysts for modernizing the economy and raising living standards.
Translation by Iurie Tataru
