Fuel hike may push inflation up 3.5%, Finance Minister
The rise in fuel prices, a direct result of the war in the Middle East, could exert pressure on inflation in the Republic of Moldova. Finance Minister Andrian Gavriliță estimates that inflation may increase by 3.5%.
"The contribution of petroleum products, which are part of overall consumption, to the consumer price index is approximately 3.5%. This means that if we were to envision a dramatic scenario where prices double and remain at that level, we could anticipate an additional inflation rate of 3.5%,” the minister stated during a government meeting on March 18.
The official also indicated that there could be an increase in the prices of certain fuel-dependent services, such as transportation.
It is crucial for the government to intervene to mitigate these "shocks," according to Gavriliță.
"We will ensure that we intervene in areas where this shock also affects economic competitiveness," the Minister of Finance emphasized.
Since the re-emergence of the war in Iran on February 28, the price of gasoline has increased from 23.75 lei to 27.18 lei per liter, marking a rise of 3.43 lei. Similarly, the price of diesel has risen from 20.72 lei to 27.65 lei per liter, an increase of 6.93 lei.
In its most recent inflation report released in February 2026, the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) projected an average annual inflation rate of 5% for that year. The NBM aims to keep inflation within a target range of 5%, plus or minus 1.5%.
In contrast, experts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have a more cautious outlook, estimating an average inflation rate of 5.5% for 2026, largely due to the country's heavy reliance on energy imports.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, inflation has reached 5.1% since the beginning of the year.
