Mortgages sustain Moldova housing as cash buyers vanish
The Republic of Moldova’s real estate market is entering a stabilization phase following a significant drop in transaction volumes. Economic expert Veaceslav Ioniță notes that this shift represents a structural correction rather than a terminal decline, primarily characterized by the departure of speculative investors and intermediaries.
Over the last 12 months, the country recorded 27,000 transactions. While individual house sales remained steady at approximately 9,700 units, the apartment segment saw a sharp decline from its 2019 peak of over 50,000 to just 17,400.
Historical lows in transaction density
Market dynamics are currently at a historic minimum, with only 11.6 transactions per 1,000 inhabitants. This is a stark contrast to the 2019 record of 24 transactions per 1,000 residents, which was already below the European average of 70.
The pressure is most acute in the Chișinău apartment sector. In the first quarter of 2026, the capital recorded only 2,240 apartment transactions—a 50% decrease compared to the same period last year and the lowest level in decades.
The pivot from cash to credit
Despite the slowdown, the market is not considered "dramatic" by analysts. The "end-user"—those purchasing homes for primary residence—remains a constant force. However, the era of cash-heavy, immediate purchases has ended, replaced by a reliance on banking.
Mortgage lending remains robust, with €122.4 million (approx. 2.4 billion MDL) in new loans granted in early 2026. The total banking portfolio for housing has reached €1.58 billion (approx. 31 billion MDL), signaling that credit is now the primary engine of the market.
The role of government support
The "Prima Casă" (First Home) state program has become a critical pillar of support, though it faces immense demand. Current estimates suggest that providing guarantees to all eligible applicants would require a budget of €510 million (approx. 10 billion MDL).
Ioniță emphasizes that the government must now rebalance the program to ensure long-term sustainability. The shift suggests that future growth will depend on clear regulatory criteria and the continued transition toward a formalized, credit-driven real estate ecosystem.
Does this professional framing align with your intended communication strategy for the international investment community?
Translation by Iurie Tataru
