Moscow expert predicts Russia’s population to hit 69-year low
Russia’s population is projected to plummet to approximately 135 million by 2046, according to Anatoly Antonov, head of the Department of Sociology of the Family and Demography at Moscow State University. This decline marks a significant long-term erosion of the country's demographic base.
Despite state-sponsored efforts to promote "traditional values" and restrictive abortion policies, long-term demographic indicators remain bleak. Antonov suggests that the actual decline may exceed official Rosstat projections, signaling the failure of state-level pro-natalist interventions.
Systemic factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, the long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, and broader socioeconomic instability, have stifled fertility rates. Russia’s total fertility rate has fallen to 1.376—the lowest level recorded since 2006.
The projected decline would push the population to its lowest level since 1977. By January 1, 2025, the population stood at 146.1 million, continuing a trend of near-annual decline that has persisted since the pandemic, despite recorded inflows of migrants.
Translation by Iurie Tataru
