Only two EU clusters may open by summer, Brussels
The European Union is changing its enlargement schedule due to a lack of consensus among member states. This means that for the Republic of Moldova, the opening of negotiation chapters may occur more slowly than previously expected.
Facing renewed resistance from Hungary, the European Union has been forced to revise its plans regarding the accession of Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova. According to Euronews, the EU now intends to unblock only two negotiation clusters by the summer break, instead of five as previously planned.
The updated timeline from Brussels indicates that Cluster 6 (External Relations) and Cluster 2 (Internal Market) will be unblocked by the summer break. This information comes from statements made by several officials and diplomats. The remaining three clusters will be evaluated gradually at a later date.
Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova, which are advancing together toward EU membership, opened Cluster 1 (Fundamental Values) on June 15 after a two-year delay caused by a Hungarian veto.
These revised plans emerge as the new government in Budapest has expressed its opposition to fast-tracking the examination of Ukraine’s membership application. Hungary has yet to sign the joint letters necessary to unlock the various clusters, and this refusal was confirmed during a meeting of the EU member states' working group. As a result, the process remains stalled. While this situation primarily concerns procedural matters, it underscores Hungary's ongoing reservations about Ukraine's prospects for EU membership.
For Budapest, the quick opening of all six clusters is seen as equivalent to a fast-tracked accession process. However, most EU member states disagree, viewing the clusters as just the initial steps in a lengthy and complex journey.
An EU official coordinating the negotiations stated, “There are indeed problems, but we expect them to be resolved by July, at least for the opening of two clusters.”
Despite this, the scaling back of expectations represents a significant setback for Brussels. The European Commission has consistently maintained that Ukraine is technically prepared to begin negotiations on all six thematic clusters, which encompass 33 chapters. Last month, European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos set July as the deadline for opening all clusters, but due to Hungary's renewed resistance, and possibly the reservations of other states, Brussels has had to temper its ambitions.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen adopted an optimistic tone after last week’s summit of EU leaders but refrained from echoing Commissioner Kos’s ambitious goal. She stated, “Our goal is to open more clusters before the summer.”
If consensus is reached, the next cluster could officially open on July 14 during a meeting of European affairs ministers in Brussels.
Hungary’s firm stance on EU enlargement
The momentum for EU enlargement has increased since Hungary's elections in April and the abrupt end of Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule. The new Prime Minister, Péter Magyar, made a conciliatory gesture by lifting Hungary’s long-standing veto on the first negotiation cluster in early June. However, Magyar has since indicated that he is not willing to support a “faster” pace of negotiations.
In a press conference following a recent summit, he stated that, at his request, a section of the joint conclusions calling for the opening of all remaining clusters with Ukraine “as soon as possible” had been removed.
Magyar partially explained his stance as a means to protect the candidate countries in the Western Balkans—Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia, and Serbia—that have aspired to join the EU for years, if not decades. He also mentioned that Hungary was not the "only" country opposing the unblocking of all clusters with Ukraine in July, although he did not specify which other countries shared this view.
Meanwhile, Márton Hajdú, chairman of the Hungarian Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, emphasized that Ukraine must first address the rights of the Hungarian minority, which has been a longstanding point of contention between the two countries.
"There is no new position from Hungary. The country supported the opening of the first negotiation cluster with Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova, and now the required reforms must be implemented, including an agreement regarding the rights of the Hungarian community in Transcarpathia," Hajdú insisted.
According to Euronews, Magyar has repeatedly stated that, at the end of the negotiations, Hungary intends to hold a legally binding referendum on Ukraine's accession. The Prime Minister estimates that the entire process could take between 10 and 15 years, a timeframe that is likely to be unacceptable to Ukraine.
