Moldova enters post-demographic era as population shrinks
Moldova is experiencing an unprecedented demographic crisis marked by continuous depopulation, rapid aging, and sustained emigration over the last three decades.
According to demographer Valeriu Sainsus, low birth rates have kept the country in a state of zero or negative population growth.
A post-demographic era
The country has entered a "post-demographic" transition phase characterized by structural shifts and latent long-term impacts.
Sainsus noted that nearly half of Moldovan families currently have only one child due to economic pressures and shifting mindsets.
Two generations lost to emigration
Emigration has severed two generations—parents and children alike—with only about one in ten emigrants returning.
However, EU integration efforts could create incentives for the diaspora to return if internal socio-economic conditions improve.
"Even though we lost two generations to migration, their return brings a new development dividend for economic growth," Sainsus told public broadcaster Moldova 1. "Migrants are highly sensitive to change. If they feel real progress at home, they will return."
Rethinking the aging workforce
While population aging presents challenges, Sainsus highlighted potential economic benefits if older citizens remain active in the labor force.
Currently, only one in four Moldovans continues working past retirement age, pointing to an untapped potential for cross-generational knowledge transfer.
Healthcare and social protection systems must urgently adapt to these shifting realities, the expert added.
Key census data highlights crisis
Final results from the 2024 Population and Housing Census, published by the National Bureau of Statistics (BNS) in August 2025, confirm the sharp decline:
Total Population: Decreased by 13.6% compared to 2014, falling to 2,401,200 usual residents.
Peak Contrast: The population has steadily dropped from its 1989 peak of 3.6 million.
Average Age: Rose to 40.6 years, up from 37.5 years in 2014.
Elderly Share: People aged 65 and older now make up 18.2% of the population (437,200 individuals).
Dependency Ratio: Reached 79 inactive elderly individuals per 100 active workers, up from 62 in 2014.
The 2024 census was conducted exclusively on territory controlled by the constitutional authorities in Chisinau, excluding the breakaway Transnistrian region.
Translation by Iurie Tataru
