Analysis// The hidden phenomena behind the war provoked by the Kremlin leader
The war in Ukraine provoked by the Kremlin leader 17 months ago has produced multiple crises around the world and especially in the energy, financial and food sectors. At the same time, the war has also had negative effects for Russia, leading to a sharp worsening of the economic situation. Russia has been gripped by two massive exoduses, one of people, who have gone abroad, and the other of money, which has been withdrawn massively by the population, according to a Business Insider analysis.
The exodus of Russians totalled about one million people, who fled mainly to neighbouring countries such as Armenia, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan, reports Business Insider. The wave of departures began after many highly educated people - such as academics, financial experts and IT specialists - left Russia in the early days of the war.
About six months later, there was another wave of departures after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial military mobilisation on 21 September. By October 2022, some 700,000 Russians had left the country, Reuters reported citing Russian media.
At the same time, the Kremlin has denied these figures. Many of these Russians have ended up in neighbouring countries, setting up new businesses and boosting the economies of these nations, the independent Russian publication Novaya Gazeta said.
The GDP of the South Caucasus - a region that includes Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia - is set to grow by 7% in 2022, according to the World Bank. This far exceeded the 5.6% growth that World Bank economists had predicted. Armenia - once known as the Silicon Valley of the Soviet Union - grew last year to 12.6%, according to the World Bank. The institution's economists forecast just 7 percent for the past.
At the same time, Russians located abroad transferred about $2 billion to Armenia in 2022, Martin Galstyan, the country's central bank governor, said in January this year. Meanwhile, Georgia's GDP grew by 10 percent last year, according to the World Bank, beating forecasts of 8.8 percent.
Remittances from Russia have increased fivefold from $411 million in 2021 to more than $2 billion in 2022, according to data from Georgia's central bank. Even Kyrgyzstan's economy grew 7 percent in 2022, beating the 4 percent forecast.
