Study// African countries will pay millions more for Putin's "generous offer" to export Russian grain
Moscow will continue grain exports to poor African countries despite Western sanctions, President Vladimir Putin has assured at the Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg. At the same time, the Kremlin leader pledged to provide 25 to 50 tonnes of Russian grain to six African countries free of charge. The statement was made amid concerns by these countries after the recent termination of the agreement on Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea. According to expert calculations, each of the poorest African countries will pay between $15 million and $115 million for this gift.
Russia expects a record grain harvest and is ready to replace Ukrainian exports to Africa on both a commercial and aid basis, and to honour Moscow's critical role in global food security, Vladimir Putin said in his opening speech at the Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg. The Kremlin leader also said that in the first six months of this year, Russia had already exported about 10 million tons of grain to Africa, indicating that in 2022, this figure was over 11 million tons for the whole year.
"We have already said that our country is able to replace Ukrainian wheat both on a commercial basis and in the form of aid to the neediest countries in Africa, especially as we are again expecting a record harvest this year. In the coming months, we will be able to provide free deliveries of 25,000 to 50,000 tonnes of grain to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Central African Republic and Eritrea. We will also ensure free delivery of these products to the consumer," Vladimir Putin said.
According to calculations by an independent Russian publication, Vladimir Putin's generous offer could cost these countries tens of millions of dollars or more than if they bought Ukrainian grain. That's because the grain offered for free won't be enough to ensure food security, and the rest will have to be bought at a higher price in the absence of the grain deal.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, wheat, the main crop imported by these countries, has become much more expensive. While in the months before the war the average price was $380 a tonne, between March and June the price rose to $500.
At the same time, from the conclusion of the Black Sea grain agreement until now, the average price has been $300, and after Russia's withdrawal from the agreement and Russian bombing of Ukrainian ports, prices have started to rise.
According to the Russian publication's calculations, which are based on statistics on grain imports by African countries, Burkina Faso will have to pay at least $80 million extra, and Mali and Eritrea - at least $15 million.
On 17 July, Moscow announced its withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal, explaining that its conditions had not been met, in particular that a number of sanctions had not been lifted and that Rosselkhozbank had not been connected to the SWIFT system.
Since 18 July, Russian troops have been carrying out strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure facilities, including in Odessa.
The agreement on Ukrainian grain exports was signed a year ago in Istanbul and has already been extended twice. Signed in Istanbul in July 2022, the Black Sea Initiative between Russia and Ukraine, under the aegis of Turkey and the United Nations, has allowed some 33 million tonnes of grain to be exported from Ukraine despite the war.
