Putin ordered Prigozhin's assassination, ISW says
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the downing of the plane carrying Evgeny Prigozhin, the founder and leader of the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary group.
"It is extremely unlikely that Russian military officials, including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Staff Chief Valery Gerasimov, would have taken action against Prigozhin without Putin's orders," ISW analysts wrote. "The entire Russian elite was likely convinced that Prigozhin survived the June 23 coup attempt only because of Putin's protection."
The institute said it will continue to evaluate events related to Prigozhin's death under the assumption that Putin ordered his assassination unless evidence to the contrary is found.
ISW's reasoning for Prigozhin's assassination is consistent with the assessments of other political observers. The report's authors suggest that Putin may have decided that Prigozhin's authority within Wagner had been sufficiently undermined and that the company itself was sufficiently divided and weakened to pose a serious threat.
ISW agrees with commentators who believe that Prigozhin's plane crash was not a coincidence. The institute notes that on the same day, August 23, the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported that General Sergei Surovikin had been removed from his position as commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
Surovikin, who previously commanded Russian forces in Ukraine, disappeared from public view after the Prigozhin coup attempt. Many observers believe that this was a sign and consequence of his support for Prigozhin.
"The official confirmation of Surovikin's dismissal in Russian state media on the same day as Prigozhin's assassination is likely no coincidence," the American analysts suggest.
