The Kyiv Independent: Ukraine's counter-offensive is getting slower
As fall weather arrives, observers are looking at the status of Ukraine's three-pronged counteroffensive, which continues to move very slowly, reports The Kyiv Independent.
Ukrainian forces have yet to fully break through Russia's defensive lines and fight to their target cities — Tokmak, Berdiansk, and Vasylivka. Their tempo is heavily limited by minefields, airstrikes, shortages of specialized equipment, troop exhaustion, and uncertain signals from Washington.
Many analysts are asking if the operation has already run its course. The ones who spoke to the Kyiv Independent believe the following.
It's likely that Ukrainian advances, especially in the south, will remain very slow and localized for a time. Both sides' attention will shift east, to Avdiivka, and to a lesser extent, Kupiansk, as Ukrainian assault brigades rest and await the tools they need.
A source in the military intelligence told the Kyiv Independent that Ukraine is especially waiting for the planes that Western allies have promised. "Because then it's a totally different war," said the source, granted anonymity to speak freely.
This absolutely does not mean that the southeastern grouping or the wider Ukrainian military are a spent force. They are still making progress near Robotyne in spite of all the things holding them back.
Retired British Lt. Col. Glen Grant, now a military adviser, says that Ukraine still has an upper hand in the current phase. "The balance could switch quite easily."
The lack of aircraft is holding Ukraine's assault brigades back in a big way. With no air support, troops are prey to daily sorties by Russian planes with gliding bombs that strike from outside the range of ground-based air defense.
"These planes can strike them with complete impunity," Kivliuk said. F-16s are expected at some point within the next three or four months. Nico Lange, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) and Germany's former defense chief, wrote that Ukraine struggles to engage Russian planes and helicopters. The intelligence source confirmed.
Critical Western arms enabled Ukraine to go on the offensive, but because many packages arrived with delays, Ukraine didn't get the opportunity to strike with overwhelming force early on, in June. This is keeping Russians in the fight longer.
