Moldova, Ukraine Closer to EU Despite Hurdles
Last Friday, European Union ambassadors from the 27 member states approved the negotiating framework that paves the way for formal accession talks with Moldova and Ukraine.
This marks a significant step forward, although the actual negotiations are expected to begin at a later date.
The green light for accession talks is a symbolic victory for both Moldova and Ukraine, but the road to EU membership remains complex and lengthy. Negotiations typically encompass numerous chapters addressing various topics, and the process can take several years to complete.
One key factor influencing the timeline is the upcoming Hungarian presidency of the EU, which commences in July. There were initial concerns that Hungary, led by Viktor Orban, a vocal critic of some Ukrainian policies, might attempt to sideline the issue. However, with the negotiating framework approved, this now seems less likely.
A significant challenge facing Ukraine is the need to negotiate specific agreements with the EU regarding maritime fishing rights and regulations. This is an area where Moldova would not require negotiations, and it further highlights the complexities involved for Ukraine, particularly given the ongoing war and the unresolved status of its maritime borders.
Historically, the average timeframe for negotiations following the granting of candidate status is 7-8 years. If Moldova can replicate Croatia's performance, which achieved EU membership within six years of commencing negotiations, it could potentially join the bloc by 2030 at the earliest.
However, the EU is currently experiencing enlargement fatigue, with some member states reluctant to welcome new members, especially those from Eastern Europe with weaker economies. Additionally, the EU cannot accept countries with unresolved territorial disputes or foreign military presence on their soil, which presents a hurdle for both Moldova and Ukraine.
Overall, while the approval of the negotiating framework represents a positive development for Moldova and Ukraine, the path towards full EU membership remains arduous and subject to various internal and external factors.
AUTHOR: Dan Alexe
Translation by Iurie Tataru
