The Kremlin’s strategic miscalculation: Why Russia’s glacial pace risks global conflict
US intelligence agencies have concluded that Vladimir Putin remains convinced of a Russian military victory in Ukraine, signaling no immediate intention to halt hostilities. According to the Annual Threat Assessment, Moscow believes it can eventually force a peace settlement on its own terms by maintaining battlefield pressure.
Despite Russia’s confidence, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) notes that the Russian military’s advance over the past year was its slowest in over a century of modern warfare. Nevertheless, as long as Russian forces occupy Ukrainian territory, the Kremlin sees no compelling reason to end the conflict.
The risk of systemic escalation
Analysts warn that this continued aggression could trigger an "escalation spiral," potentially leading to a direct confrontation with NATO. The report highlights this as the most significant threat Russia poses to the United States, citing the danger of a regional conflict evolving into a global crisis.
Nuclear rhetoric and existential threats
Moscow’s repeated nuclear signaling and its deployment of dual-use intermediate-range ballistic missiles have heightened concerns. Intelligence officials emphasize that the war increases the risk of both unintended and deliberate escalation, which could eventually involve the use of nuclear weapons and threaten US national security.
Translation by Iurie Tataru
