Forecasts: Moldova's economy will face major challenges due to war in Ukraine
Economic growth in the Republic of Moldova, forecast for 2023, is 3.5% . This is minor and can be explained by the crises our country faced last year. These conclusions were reached by experts from ASEM's National Institute for Economic Research and are contained in the new edition of the publication "Trends in the Moldovan Economy".
Last year was one of the most difficult for Moldova's economy, with an economic downturn of around 6% and record inflation. The conflict in Ukraine had a major impact on the economy, influencing the energy market and raising concerns about the country's energy security, said Olga Timofei, a research scientist at ASEM's National Institute for Economic Research. Thus, the crises our country faced last year directly influenced economic development in 2023.
"In 2023, the national economy could only hope for a minor advance. Thus, in 2023, Moldova's economy will face major challenges due to the continuation of the military conflict in Ukraine and Russia, the global economic crisis and the high price of natural gas and electricity. In 2023, local elections will also take place and they will have a negative influence on the economic path, but also on the implementation of economic reforms, due to the political populism characteristic of these periods", said Olga Timofei.
According to experts at ASEM's National Institute for Economic Research, the government is trying to diversify its economy and attract foreign investment in IT and tourism. Thus, a nominal wage increase of 13% and a real one of 1.5% is planned. The unemployment rate is expected to be around 3.5% in 2023.
At the same time, the experts point out that the forecasting exercise for the Moldovan economy is influenced by internal and external factors, including political decisions and the evolution of the geopolitical situation. Among these factors are the prices of energy resources, which could fall significantly in 2023, according to International Monetary Fund forecasts, including the price of Russian gas in Europe.
